Czech Trade Data May Signal Start of Economic Recovery

Bloomberg: he wider of Czech foreign trade surplus and higher exports in April may indicate the beginning of an economic revival from a record-long recession, said Tomas Holub, the head of the central bank’s monetary and statistics department.

The Czech Republic’s foreign trade surplus was 33 billion koruna ($1.7 billion) in April, a 13 billion-koruna increase from a year ago, the Prague-based Statistics Office said today. Exports rose 6.4 percent, after falling 7.3 percent in March, according to the statement.

The data were a “relatively positive surprise,” and export growth was “pleasing,” Holub told lawmakers at a budget committee hearing today. “This means there is some hope that foreign trade may be rebounding from the bottom and help a gradual revival of economic activity in the coming course of the year.”

The $217 billion economy shrank for six straight quarters through March, the longest decline since records began in 1996, as Europe’s debt crisis curbed demand for exports and eroded spending by households and businesses.

The slump has tamed inflation and pushed the central bank to cut rates to effectively zero, sparking a debate among policy makers about whether to weaken the koruna with interventions.

reporter on this story: Peter Laca in Prague